It was 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
