A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
